Opta supercomputer predicts the winner of the 2026 World Cup

The 2026 World Cup is approaching, and the first statistical analyses have begun identifying the favorites for the most important trophy in world football.

According to the “Opta” supercomputer, the current European champions, Spain, are the national team most likely to win the 2026 World Cup.

The statistical model of the well-known sports analytics company gives “La Roja” around a 16 percent chance of lifting the trophy in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

France comes after Spain, considered the main threat to Luis de la Fuente’s team.

“Les Bleus”, led by captain Kylian Mbappé, have a 12.5 percent chance of being crowned world champions.

England is in third place with more than a 10 percent chance, while reigning champion Argentina ranks fourth according to Opta’s simulations.

Portugal, led by Cristiano Ronaldo, rounds out the Top 5 national teams most likely to triumph, with a 6.9 percent chance, while Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil is sixth with 6.8 percent.

Opta bases its predictions on thousands of computer simulations, taking into account teams’ form, historical results, world rankings and recent international performances.

Spain enters the tournament as European champions and with a golden generation of players, including names such as Lamine Yamal, Pedri and Rodri.

It is precisely this generation that has led analysts and algorithms to consider the Iberian team the number one candidate to triumph at the 2026 World Cup.

However, with France, England, Argentina and Brazil in the running, the road to the trophy is expected to be one of the toughest and most spectacular in World Cup history. 

Ranking of favorites according to Opta's

1. Spain – 16.0%

2. France – 12.5%

3. England – 10.7%

4. Argentina – 10.1%

5. Portugal – 6.9%

6. Brazil – 6.8%